Putin's Landing Spot
Updated: Mar 19, 2022
You all know the story of Hitler's death. The Americans were closing in from the west and the Russians were closing in from the east and Hitler took his own life in a bunker, he was out of options. Yet the history books show that ultimately Hitler dictated Hitler's own fate.
But other than maybe Benito Mussolini or Muammar Gaddafi, what modern despot really got what they deserved?
And it got me thinking, what if Vladimir Putin got wind that his own generals were going to arrest or assassinate him? Why would Russian Generals turn on Putin, you ask?
Russia prides itself on playing defense. Russian State TV can say that the Russian Military is performing a "special military operation." Vladimir Putin can say that the Russian Military is performing a "special military operation." Russian Generals know that it's an invasion. That may not sit well with disciplined Russian military tacticians or those Generals with family in Ukraine.
Think of the Russian Military as just another company. It is the employee's/infantry's job to die. It is the boss'/general's job to dictate movements. Nothing kills morale in an army faster than dead generals. Not necessarily the army's morale, mind you, but the generals' morale.
So imagine a scenario where Russian Generals are marching down the hall to grab Putin and he's having his "oh shit" moment. Putin grabs his American Express Platinum Card and bolts out of the Kremlin. Where does Putin go?
If you google "poorest countries in Europe," Belarus is in the top 10. If you take out all the countries torn apart by war in the last generation, Belarus moves to the top of the list. It doesn't matter if Alexander Lukashenko is one of Putin's staunchest allies, Putin isn't going to the West Virginia of Europe.
At first, it seems like a natural landing spot, but what's in it for China? Yes, housing Putin would aggravate the Western World, watching Putin grow old consequence-free, but eventually embarrassing the west doesn't do anything in regards to trade and international relations. More importantly, if Russia is one of China's staunchest allies, what happens if Russia votes in someone China likes MORE than Putin? Putin's existence could hinder future Chinese/Russian relations.
Syria: Oh hell no.
Putin has zero interest living in a war zone. Z-E-R-O.
If Putin really is the world's richest man, Qatar is the Rich Man's playground. Wouldn't Qatar deport Putin to a country that would want to put him on trial for war crimes? Not if Putin PAID Qatar not to deport him.
Nur-Sultan is quickly becoming one of the jewels of Asia.
But they didn't get that way through the core tenets of capitalism, Kazakhstan is a corrupt puppet-state of Putin's. Unlike Belarus though, it is nestled in a very secure spot for international criminals in the area between Russia and China.
Putin can buy a whole building in Nur-Sultan and live out his days in luxury away from the glare of the West.
Listen, Ukraine keeps gaining MORAL VICTORIES. Ukraine is not actually winning the war. I hope Ukraine wins, but there is still no path for a Ukrainian victory.
Do I expect Putin to be the leader of Russia in 2 years? Yes I do.
Do I expect Zelensky to be dead in 2 years? Yes I do.
But predicting the future is a really hard game. All I know is that there's over a dozen heads of state living in exile today. Since the year 2000, nearly 3 dozen heads of state jetted to foreign countries for various reasons.
Just 6 months ago, did I think Russia would drive their tanks to the outskirts of Kyiv? No, I did not.
Just 6 months ago, did I think Volodymyr Zelensky would scratch and claw for the future of Ukraine? No, I did not.
Part of the danger of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine is the instability of the situation. Look what happens when you google World War III: