The 2026 World Cup is NOT the 1980 Olympics (Or 1984 Olympics)
- Fred
- Apr 16
- 4 min read
Updated: Apr 18
Listen, as a large scale entity, FIFA is the most corrupt sports organization on the planet.
Over the past week, I keep reading that nations are "considering" boycotts of the World Cup using anonymous source due to the US/Iran on-again, off-again "war."
According to AI: "Movements to boycott the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States are growing, with international calls from politicians, human rights groups, and fans urging a boycott due to concerns over U.S. immigration enforcement (ICE), foreign policy, human rights, and political instability. Petitioners and critics argue that participating in or attending the tournament legitimizes policies they deem to violate international standards, with some comparisons drawn to the 2022 World Cup controversies in Qatar."
I am not exaggerating, I am not using hyperbole, when it comes to World Cup soccer, no one cares about social justice. Qatar used migrant workers to build soccer stadiums in the middle of the desert, and over 6,000 of them died. Did anyone at FIFA protest? Nope, Qatar threw those workers in a sandy pit and built the stadiums on top of them.
Luckily, players didn't trip over any rotting skulls or femurs when competing in the 2026 tournament.
Can you image the outcry if the United States caused the death of 6,000 union workers?
So, all of a sudden, rabid soccer fans supposedly care about what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz?
They don't.
You say Jimmy Carter boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympics and Konstantin Chernenko boycotted the 1984 L.A. Olympics? And? The World Cup and the Olympics are two very different animals. The Olympics are mostly for the casual sports fan to check in on their favorite fringe sports every 4 years, like biathlon, curling, or decathlon.
Soccer is the world's most popular sport and the World Cup is the sport's most popular tournament. There is a certain level of blood lust associated with the World Cup.
I want you to look at the list below. If a good team, with an unstable government, a team like Columbia, if they pulled out of the World Cup, would that topple their government? I am not sure that it wouldn't. If a great team, like France, pulled out, would it cause Emmanuel Macron to lose the next presidential election?
In most of the countries below, there would be serious political ramifications if their country's soccer team was pulled from the World Cup by their leaders for political reasons.
You can review the list below.
2026 World Cup Odds
Team | Group | Win | Finals | Semis | Quarter Finals | Win Group | |
H | +450 | +220 | Even | -160 | -500 | ||
I | +550 | +300 | +130 | -135 | -235 | ||
L | +650 | +300 | +140 | -145 | -340 | ||
C | +850 | +360 | +180 | -120 | -475 | ||
J | +850 | +400 | +190 | -110 | -340 | ||
K | 11-1 | +500 | +200 | Even | -230 | ||
E | 14-1 | +550 | +260 | +130 | -340 | ||
F | 20-1 | +900 | +450 | +180 | -125 | ||
I | 28-1 | 12-1 | +550 | +260 | +280 | ||
G | 35-1 | 12-1 | +500 | +150 | -250 | ||
K | 40-1 | 18-1 | +700 | +280 | +240 | ||
F | 50-1 | 25-1 | 11-1 | +400 | +300 | ||
C | 60-1 | 22-1 | 10-1 | +350 | +450 | ||
D | 65-1 | 18-1 | +850 | +275 | +140 | ||
H | 65-1 | 20-1 | +650 | +300 | +400 | ||
D | 65-1 | 25-1 | +900 | +300 | +180 | ||
A | 70-1 | 25-1 | 12-1 | +350 | +110 | ||
E | 80-1 | 35-1 | 14-1 | +550 | +400 | ||
F | 80-1 | 50-1 | 14-1 | +650 | +400 | ||
L | 90-1 | 28-1 | 10-1 | +400 | +400 | ||
B | 100-1 | 18-1 | +850 | +275 | -105 | ||
J | 100-1 | 40-1 | 16-1 | +700 | +450 | ||
I | 100-1 | 40-1 | 18-1 | +650 | +850 | ||
A | 150-1 | 80-1 | 25-1 | +750 | +240 | ||
B | 200-1 | 40-1 | 16-1 | +450 | +260 | ||
D | 200-1 | 65-1 | 25-1 | +800 | +425 | ||
C | 200-1 | 80-1 | 28-1 | +800 | +900 | ||
E | 250-1 | 80-1 | 28-1 | 10-1 | +700 | ||
B | 250-1 | 80-1 | 30-1 | +850 | +260 | ||
G | 300-1 | 80-1 | 30-1 | +900 | +450 | ||
G | 300-1 | -- | -- | -- | +600 | ||
J | 350-1 | 65-1 | 20-1 | +800 | +650 | ||
A | 350-1 | 65-1 | 28-1 | +650 | +300 | ||
L | 350-1 | 80-1 | 30-1 | 12-1 | 10-1 | ||
D | 450-1 | 100-1 | 65-1 | 16-1 | +700 | ||
F | 500-1 | 200-1 | 80-1 | 20-1 | +800 | ||
K | 700-1 | 150-1 | 40-1 | 16-1 | +800 | ||
A | 800-1 | 250-1 | 100-1 | 20-1 | 12-1 | ||
H | 1000-1 | 250-1 | 80-1 | 22-1 | 16-1 | ||
L | 1000-1 | 250-1 | 100-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | ||
B | 1000-1 | 250-1 | 150-1 | 35-1 | 28-1 | ||
G | 1000-1 | 300-1 | 250-1 | 40-1 | 20-1 | ||
I | 1000-1 | 400-1 | 100-1 | 65-1 | 40-1 | ||
H | 1000-1 | 500-1 | 250-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 | ||
K | 1500-1 | 300-1 | 100-1 | 35-1 | 35-1 | ||
J | 1500-1 | 500-1 | 250-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 | ||
C | 1500-1 | 500-1 | 500-1 | 150-1 | 100-1 | ||
E | 1500-1 | 500-1 | 500-1 | 150-1 | 130-1 |
*Hosts in Bold
Just today, the President of FIFA said that Iran was "for sure" playing this summer. Short of a full blown World War, I expect the USA/Mexico/Canada World Cup to proceed mostly according to plan.
The only two World Cups cancelled in history were in 1942 and 1946, both cancellations were for obvious reasons. In 1942, the world was in the depths of war. In 1946, it was less than a year since the use of the Atom Bomb, and most of Europe was being rebuilt.
Since 1950, only one team has ever boycotted the World Cup after qualifying, and that was (soccer) minnow India.
According to AI:
" India's withdrawal from the 1950 FIFA World Cup, which was widely seen as a boycott, was largely due to a combination of financial constraints, lack of preparation, and the low priority given to the tournament compared to the Olympics at the time. While a famous myth suggests India was disqualified for refusing to wear shoes, this has been largely debunked."
India used all their financial resources on the Olympics in 1950? None of the 48 teams above are going to have that problem in 2026.
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