The Cleveland Browns signed Deshaun Watson yesterday. Did they make a smart bet? Uh, no. They made a bet.
Deshaun Watson's career record is 28-25, a little better than Baker Mayfield's 29-30 record. But when you do a deep dive into the advanced analytics, apparently, according to Paul DePodesta's football version of Deep Blue sitting in his basement in California, Watson's QB rating numbers are off the charts.
In a vacuum, if Watson's internal numbers are similar to Aaron Rodgers', it's a good decision right? Well, football isn't played in a computer simulation (or is it?) Here are the real life issues that the computer doesn't take into account.
Do you know who LeCharles Bentley is? LeCharles Bentley is a football player who played at local football factory St. Ignatius (Ohio), moved on to national football factory Ohio State, then was drafted by the New Orleans Saints. In the year 2006, the Cleveland Browns signed free agent, and hometown favorite, Bentley to a 6 year, $36 million contract. The signing was hailed across the league.
On the first snap of 11 on 11s in training camp, Bentley blew out his knee on a non-contact play. Operation followed operation and he nearly lost his leg due to a staph infection. By 2008, for all intensive purposes, Bentley was out of football. What does LeCharles Bently have to do with Deshaun Watson?
Football is a contact sport. It is INSANE to give a player a $230 million fully guaranteed contract. It doesn't matter who the player is. Listen, that's not just me saying it. Watson now has $80 million MORE guaranteed money on his contract than anyone else in the history of football. If Watson has a catastrophic injury, the Browns are crippled for the next decade. You will be talking about the Browns not existing anymore. Again.
And, of course, there's the legal allegations. If Deshaun Watson is as great as the analytics dictate, no NFL team would ever let him go. None. Not for 10 first round draft picks. But 22 sexual assault charges lowered the price tag of a Deshaun Watson acquisition.
Let's just say, just to argue, that half the women are lying. That means Deshaun Watson sexually assaulted 11 women. Back to the Bill Cosby Casino, what are the chances that all 22 women are lying? Now Deshaun Watson's argument could be that he's just a friendly guy, he loves all women. and there have been 22 misunderstandings.
Watson can settle out of court for $22 million, ($1 million per accusation,) and that is feasible, but distasteful. And again, it's not just me saying it, the female Browns fans are livid. That's not my sample size, Fox 8 said 95% of the 6,000 strong Female Browns Backers are against the move.
So, best case scenario, Deshaun Watson is.... uh.... let's use the generous term of overzealous. What if he gets to Cleveland and it's the worst case scenario, Watson is a predator with CTE. What if cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot writes a negative column about Watson and he channels his inner Mike Tyson in response and he tells her "I'll f*** you until you love me."
What the hell do you do then?
And, on top of all that, you traded a handful of really good draft picks for Watson. At any given time, there are 11 players on a football field. Watson has to be great enough to compensate for lesser players around him.
So for the Browns to win the Super Bowl, the team tossed a good quarterback in the garbage (Mayfield), are hoping that Watson stays injury free, are hoping that Watson turns into a boy scout, are hoping that his play compensates for lesser teammates, and are hoping he isn't suspended for the 2022 season. You do know that national publications are exclaiming that the Cleveland Browns "sold their soul," right?
The Browns bet the farm on 4 Black. Look at a Roulette Wheel and tell me if that's a smart bet.
Paul DePodesta thinks his computer is smarter than the rest of the NFL?
Guess what pinhead? Every NFL team uses computers.
Number of World Series victories for DePodesta's "Moneyball" teams in Oakland? Zero.
That would be zero World Series APPEARANCES.