If I could give Volodymyr Zelensky just one sentence of advice, it would be this:
As the Russian invasion has stalled to a stalemate, bodies of soldiers continue to pile up on both sides. But because Russia has more soldiers, it can absorb more casualties. War Strategy 101.
We said it on Day 1 of the invasion, there is no path for a Ukrainian Victory. A Ukrainian Victory would be defined as dislodging the Russians from Crimea and the Eastern Oblasts that declared independence in 2022. They cannot do that.
A Ukrainian Victory has to be redefined as Ukraine exists. Surrender the oblasts of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Surrender Kherson and Zaporizhzhia south of the Dnipro RIver.
Give your country a fighting chance for the future. Once Putin is dead, and he will die one day, you can hope for gains on the diplomatic end at a later date. Remember, Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence. Once they are in Russian hands, look for more trouble in that region even after a cease fire.
Many in Eastern Europe paint the fight in Ukraine as nothing more than a glorified Civil War.
If I have spoken on this topic multiple times in the past, why is there such urgency right now?
On October 7, Hamas attacked Isreal. Since then Israel has been annihilating Gaza, that has been well publicized. But there have also been less reported skirmishes in the West Bank, on the Lebanese Border, in the Red Sea, and a constant lob of missiles from Yemen.
And I haven't even mentioned America's commitment to Guyana.
The United States is already fighting a drone war around Israel. They want to help Ukraine, but they can't commit what Ukraine really needs and that's manpower. The first wave of Ukrainian enlistments are just about up and there's no second wave. The soldiers on the ground now are outmanned and undersupplied.
Again, I am NOT advocating for American troops on the ground in Ukarine. Our Red Line has to be Poland, but Volodymyr Zelensky has to accept the current situation, in terms of control, as the new borders. Unfortunately, Zelensky is now feeling more pressure within Ukraine than Putin is facing within Russia.
Just this week, Putin's greatest threat to power within Russia simply disappeared. Alexei Navalny was one of Putin's greatest political nemesises. But then he was jailed on trumped up charges, poisoned, tortured, went on a hunger strike, and now doesn't officially exist.
Just like Navalny existing is a simple win, Ukraine existing at 80% of its original borders is better than not existing at all.
Ukraine has no calvary on the horizon, they are at the tipping point because the United States is right on the verge of cutting their monetary support.
Zelensky has to negotiate away what Putin has won in war BEFORE their money dries up, not after. Once U.S. Money disappears, there is no more negotiating leverage.
I am not a propagandist. I am a realist.
Typing this makes me sad, but Zelensky has to choose between a number of untenable solutions and hope for the least untenable one. .