China is Flat Out Stupid
There is speculation that Afghanistan could fall to the Taliban as early as next week.
China came out and said that they will recognize the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan if Kabul falls. The reason to do that, today, in 2021, is to embarrass the U.S. Government. But, by doing that, Beijing is opening up Pandora's box.
Pretend, for a moment, that Afghanistan is the center of the entire world. Once America is gone, do you see America on this map? You do not. It is going to be very difficult for the Taliban to get their brand of religion to take seed half way around the globe in America. After Kabul, are there going to be pockets of the American Midwest falling into the Taliban's hands? Uh, no. Once the original thrill of winning Afghanistan wears off, what do you think is going to be the Taliban's next move?
Iran? No. The Taliban, I believe, thinks the type of Islam practiced in Iran makes them allies.
India? On the map above, there is disputed territory between China, Pakistan, and India. That area of Kasmir is a mess and is separated between Pakistani-Administered Kasmir and Indian Administered Kasmir. There is also the disputed territory of Aksai Chin between the Indians and the Chinese. I don't even think the Taliban want the headache of trying to plant their flag there.
Tajikistan? Now this is where things get interesting. The Taliban have already made some trouble in Tajikistan. Once the Taliban have cemented things in Afghanistan, this is PROBABLY their next target. The question is will Russia vehemently defend Tajikistan (I ASSUME they will), or will Moscow leave Tajikistan in the lurch. Again, I don't believe Putin wants the Taliban to gain a foothold in any of the former Soviet states.
Pakistan? There are nearly 3 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan. Will those Afghan refugees want to stay in Pakistan or will they want to return home under the Taliban? Could the Taliban destabilize Pakistan? Who the hell knows what's going on in Pakistan.
China? Once things settle down in Afghanistan, there is the matter of the 47 mile border that China and Afghanistan share. Now that border is mostly no man's land, but Kabul to Kashgar is about 500 miles away (about the same distance as New York to Cleveland, without the interstate.) If the ideas of the Taliban continue to fester in places like Tajikistan and Pakistan, who's to say a variant of their ideals wouldn't take hold with the Uyghurs?
The Uyghurs are just a slim minority in the overall population of China. Islam is the religion of only about .5% of the population of China. But in places like Kashgar in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, the Uyghurs and their religion are the majority. Why would China recognize a Taliban led Afghanistan if it would destabilize their own western frontier?
And why in the world would the irreligious communists align themselves long term with Muslim extremists, especially if America was increasingly out of the equation?
I can't imagine a Taliban win is good for anyone in the region, except for Iran.
I read a story at the Drudge Report today: Why Did My Friends get Blown Up? For What?
Afghan war veterans are aghast at Taliban gains? Stripping emotions away from what we did in Afghanistan, there was never any plan for victory. The U.S. was trying to nation build. Again. Now the U.S. has rebuilt nations that were once great (like Japan). But how many shithole nations has the U.S. turned into great nations? Ugggh.....
Brass tacks? U.S. veterans lost their limbs in a practice war.
Practicing for what? The next big war.