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Should I Believe Urban Meyer? (Hint: No.)

Two years ago, I wrote the article Should I Believe Urban Meyer?

Old Urb was beset with health problems and quit his job as the coach of the Ohio State Buckeyes. As soon as he walked away, the national media howled that Meyer was a scoundrel and would coach somewhere else, like USC or Texas, almost immediately.

Buckeye Honks swore Meyer was done. He would live out his life as a TV analyst or a consultant. His family was way too important to even CONSIDER coaching again.

Vegas was convinced Meyer would coach again, making the Yes Bet a 1-3 favorite. (Ah, but there was a caveat. There was an expiration date. So if you said Urban would never coach again, you collected a 2.5 - 1 payout on Sept. 1, 2020.)

To the surprise of everyone, and I mean everyone, Urban Meyer took a job that no one predicted he would take, the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars job, which is even more stressful than any football job on the college level. (Ask Steve Spurrier.)

Do I personally wish Urban Meyer well? Yeah, I guess so. I am surprisingly neutral with him taking the Jaguars job.

Instead of an emotional writer, I will break it down like a numbers guy.

Chances of Urban Meyer winning the Super Bowl before March 1, 2026: 15-1

Chances of Urban Meyer being a coach back in the college ranks before March 1, 2026: 3-1

Chances of Urban Meyer being fired from the Jags before March 1, 2026: 2-1

(Average NFL coaching career? 4.3 years)

Chances of Urban Meyer being the first coach in the Modern Era to die on the sidelines: 4-1

With those odds in mind, if you replaced the name Urban Meyer with the name Fred Hunt, there's no way in hell I'm taking that Jaguars job.

If Alabama pays Nick Saban around $9 million a year, and Meyer is rumored to be getting $10 million a year in Jacksonville, for someone whose net worth is around $30 million, it just seems like an uncharacteristic cash grab when you could get similar money at a large, desperate Division I program.

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