What if Trump Dies?
Last month, I wrote an article that asked What if Biden Dies?
After publishing the article, the feedback I received wasn't exactly what I expected. My hypothesis about Biden was simply that if he died before election day, it would be very messy for the Democrat Party.
Well someone said to me, "well smart guy, what if Trump dies?" The reason I didn't write that article is because that piece would have been one sentence long. As soon as Trump was in the ground, the Republican Party would sprint to replace him with Vice President Mike Pence. Article over.
But something curious happened this weekend that made me slightly change my mind. Kanye West now claims he is running for President. No details, no platform, no running mate. Also, no important technical issues like no filings with the Federal Election Committee, no Campaign Committee, or no plan to get on the ballot in every state.
But let's bypass all of that for a minute. What if Kanye West wasn't just promoting his new album? What if he's dead serious? Kanye's wife, Kim Kardashian, "has about 280 million followers across Twitter, Facebook, Tik Tok and Instagram." Granted, that's across the whole world, and there's some overlap where people could follow her on multiple platforms, but again, let's postulate that she has 50 million unique followers in the United States. If she simply told her followers to "vote for my husband," can you imagine how high his polling numbers would be to start off his campaign?
Again, if Trump died. I still think, with 99% certainty, that Pence is getting the Republican nod. But with the presence of Kanye, and with the fact that the country seems to be lurching to the left, Pence may be too far to the right and there would, at the very least, be some cursory discussions about nominating someone more moderate than Pence. Would the Republicans draft Kanye? The way this year has gone, I'm not discounting anything.
But for now, you know I love third party candidates. Would I vote for Third-Party Kanye? I don't know, I'd need to hear what he thinks about issues like tensions with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
Honestly, I thought that at the beginning of the year, Trump's best path to victory was Trump v Biden v Sanders. I really thought that Trump would goad Sanders into running. To Sanders' credit, he did not take the bait. Why? Because I thought Trump would win in that scenario 40% to 35% to 25%, or some such ratio.
Distraught Democrats are now wringing their hands as we speak when it comes to a Trump v Biden v West Election.
You know how I know I'm right? Partisan Hack/Dirtbag Dean Obeidallah immediately wrote a column begging Kanye not to run: A Plea to Kanye: Don't. Just Don't. On the surface, you would think that in the year of BLM, it would be very distasteful to beg a Black Candidate NOT to run (but, of course, you know that there's more to the story.)
In a Trump v Biden v West election, let's just hypothesize that Biden and Trump split the White Vote. (Possible.)
Biden gets more White Votes in Blue states, Trump gets more White Votes in Red states. (Possible.)
And then Biden and West split the Black Vote. (Possible.)
You know what happens then?
Trump wins the Electoral College.
I SMELL A CONSPIRACY.