Who Will Dissolve First? The USA or Russia

If you're under the age of 34, you've only known the United States and Russia.

But I'm in my 50's and I was stunned back when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. Those Baltic States, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, couldn't get away from the Soviet Union fast enough. I vaguely knew about those countries, they wanted to be part of Europe so bad, they telegraphed their exit. Yet republics like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in Asia longed to be out from Moscow's thumb for totally different reasons, I had never heard of either of the republics before the fall of the Berlin Wall. If you're a Russian Historian, whether you love or hate Vladimir Putin, you have to give him credit that MORE Russian Republics didn't break away from Russia around the year 2000. We'll circle back around to that shortly.

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I remember my Dad joking that they added the states Alaska and Hawaii just to make school harder for him in the 1950's. He said school was challenging enough having to learn 48 states without adding two more.

Only a few years ago, I posited that there should be 60 states. I think California is now too large and unmanageable and should be broken into thirds. And I think American Territories should either become states or become independent countries, based on the votes of the people. We, as a country, should be out of the territory business.

Last week though, Vladimir Putin speculated that America was on the brink of Civil War. Listen, America is in a bit of trouble right now, but thus far, despite attacks on the Constitution by both sides of the aisle, the document has held our country together.

And no matter what you think of Donald Trump, he is done running the United States in 2028. You think he's going to change the Constitution to repeal presidential term limits? Then 82 year old Trump will lose handily to 67 year old Barack Obama in the next election. You think Donald Trump will burn the Constitution in a rusty ol' steel barrel? Trump is not a fascist.

I think, deep down, for the next 50 years or so, America is okay. We are never going to annex Greenland and no state is going to secede from the Union in the near term. But America dissolving? All of that gibberish is from the Far-Left and the Far-Right trying to win in the culture wars.

Everything is permanent in the world...until it's not.

Now Russia seems strong as they bully Ukraine and swipe their land-

What Seems Amiss at the Russia Wikipedia Page?

Russia is only as strong as Vladimir Putin dictates it to be. When Putin dies, there will be a Constitutional Crisis. How can I predict the future? Russia's Constitution is barely 30 years old. There were major revisions in the Constitution in 2020, based almost entirely on keeping power in Putin's hands. When Putin dies, and one day he will die, the Russia's Constitution itself could dissolve.

According to Russia (not the international community), this is how the country breaks down internally:

• 48 Oblasts

• 24 Republics

• 9 Krais

• 1 Autonomous Oblast

• 4 Autonomous Okrugs

• 3 Federal Cities

48 Oblasts: With the exception of the 2 contested Oblasts that Russia claimed from Ukraine, the Western Oblasts will make up the core of Russia for the next 500 years. The Eastern Oblasts? Ah, ah, ah.

24 Republics: This is where things get real complicated. When Putin dies, if there is a power struggle in Moscow, look for these Republics to declare independence almost immediately:

• Chechnya - Chechnya has already been at war twice with Russia since the Soviet Union broke up. Separatists are still very active in the country.

• Donetsk - They declared that they were an independent republic before being swallowed up by Russia.

• Luhansk - Same as Donetsk

• Tatarstan - Could Tatarstan declare independence to become the Tatar homeland? Would neighboring republics join them?

• Buryatia - Putin stripped some of the autonomy of the Eastern republics once he took power. Buryatia could become a Buddhist Homeland...and China would be furious.

9 Krais: The Krais are a mostly expansive regions in the East with relatively small populations. Would they separate from Moscow? It depends, each Krai is very different than the others.

1 Autonomous Oblast: The Jewish Autonomous Oblast is an anomaly. On the Chinese border in the Russian Far East, Jews started to leave their "Russian Homeland" almost as soon as it was established by Vladimir Lenin. Today, 837 Jews live there and eventually the JOA will be merged with another administrative district.

4 Autonomous Okrugs: The Okrugs are so sparsely populated, per square mile, that it would be very hard for those regions to break away. It would be like the Yukon Territory trying to break away from Canada.

3 Federal Cities:

• Moscow

• St. Petersburg

• Sevastopol

If you built a triangle between the three cities, that is where Putin wants to centralize power over the next generation. Part of that triangle is in other countries, you counter? Yeah, it is.

Not today, not tomorrow, but eventually Putin will be gone. That vacuum will irreparably harm Russia, because Putin made himself bigger than the country. At every turn, Donald Trump is countered by the Legislative and Judicial Branches on the Federal Level and by State and Local Governments at the Municipal Level. When Putin is gone, it could potentially be a jailbreak. If one or two republics declare independence, Russia can impose martial law and survive. If a dozen republics and oblasts declare independence, Russia, as we know it, will crumble across ethic and tribal lines-

Right now, Vladimir Putin is calling me a filthy propagandist, and in 20 years Russia will have rebuilt the Soviet Union.

In theory, that could happen too.

But it won't.

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