Russian History in Real Time -Part II-
By this time tomorrow, this flag could represent a new country. Could Yevgeny Prigozhin march into the office of Vasily Golubev and lop off his head? 24 hours ago I would have said it was impossible. This morning it, at least, is plausible. If Prigozhin assassinates Golubev and puts his head on a pike in the City of Rostov, in theory Prigozhin could declare the Oblast of Rostov his own country.
What would happen in Luhansk and Donetsk then? Would Putin pull out of contested Ukrainian Territories to protect the Motherland? Is Prigozhin's Goal a coup against Vladimir Putin himself?
Last year, I read a startling article: The Breakup: Will Russia Splinter Over the War in Ukraine
The author's premise was "It is not unprecedented for Russia’s constituent republics to demand independence when Moscow is weak." Just like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania couldn't declare independence fast enough when the Soviet Union broke up, supposedly there are Russian Oblasts that yearn to be free from Moscow's Yoke.
Like a shattered piece of glass, the question now becomes: Is the Russian Army strong enough to hold gains in Ukraine while squashing a military coup?